【解放軍最新軍演預測與分析】
[Predictions & Analysis of the Latest PLA Drills]
• 中文： 大家好，我是 Topher。現在是 12 月 29 日週一晚上，我想針對解放軍今天剛宣佈的環台演習做個預測。我預測這次演習總共會動員約 100 艘艦艇和 150 架次的軍機。雖然名義上可能是兩天的演習，但我認為大約在 12 月 31 日晚間就會結束，因為解放軍也想回家過年。
• English: Hey everyone, I’m Topher. It’s Monday evening, December 29th, and I want to make a prediction regarding the PLA exercise surrounding Taiwan announced earlier today. I predict this exercise will involve a total of about 100 ships and 150 flight sorties. Although it might officially be a two-day exercise, I think it will be over by the evening of December 31st, as the PLA troops also want to get home to their families for the New Year.
• 中文： 這次演習顯然是對美國最近宣布價值 110 億美元對台軍售案的反應。這筆軍售主要集中在台灣陸軍，包含海馬斯（HIMARS）系統發射的 ATACMS 精準飛彈（射程達 300 公里，可直接打擊中國本土）、帕拉丁自走砲（性價比極高，適合灘頭防禦），以及大量的拖式與標槍反坦克飛彈，非常符合台灣的「刺蝟策略」。
• English: This exercise is an obvious reaction to the $11 billion arms deal recently announced by the U.S. This package is heavily focused on Taiwan’s Army, including ATACMS precision missiles fired from HIMARS (with a range of at least 300 km, capable of reaching mainland China), Paladin self-propelled howitzers (excellent cost-performance for beach defense), and numerous TOW and Javelin anti-tank systems—fitting perfectly with the “Porcupine Strategy.”
• 中文： 此外，最重要的軍售項目之一是「戰術任務網路（TMN）」，這套現代化的指揮控制系統能讓台灣海陸空三軍的系統連動，減少戰爭迷霧，這才是錢花在刀口上的投資。
• English: Additionally, one of the most important items is the Tactical Mission Network (TMN). This modern command and control system allows Taiwan’s Army, Navy, and Air Force systems to communicate seamlessly, reducing the “fog of war.” This is money extremely well spent.
【軍演現況與「灰色地帶」策略】
[Current Drill Status & “Gray Zone” Tactics]
• 中文： 到了演習第二天，情況與我預期的有所落差。雖然中共劃定了大面積的「實彈射擊區」，但這更多是為了恐嚇與干擾航運。解放軍發布的演習影片，從專業剪輯和審核流程來看，極大機率是事先拍好的庫存資料。
• English: By day two of the drills, things were slightly different than I expected. Although the CCP designated large “live-fire zones,” these were mainly for intimidation and disrupting shipping lanes. The exercise videos released by the PLA, given their professional editing and approval process, are almost certainly pre-recorded stock footage.
• 中文： 不過，12 月 30 日早上確實偵測到從福建發射的 27 枚火箭彈。這種不預告、不顧國際慣例的演習是典型的「灰色地帶」戰術。這也反映出台灣軍事現代化的迫切性。我個人認為台灣政府內部的黨派政治有時會阻礙軍事現代化專案（如 400 億美元的特別預算），這對國家長遠安全並非好事。
• English: However, on the morning of December 30th, 27 rockets launched from Fujian were indeed detected. This type of exercise, conducted without notice or regard for international norms, is a classic “gray zone” tactic. It highlights the urgency of Taiwan’s military modernization. Personally, I find it frustrating when partisan politics within Taiwan’s government hinder modernization packages (like the $40 billion special budget), as this is detrimental to long-term national security.
【2025 年地緣政治大回顧】
[2025 Geopolitical Recap]
• 中文： 回顧 2025 年，解放軍東部戰區司令員在 10 月被清洗，目前的新司令可能是為了這次演習才升任。這一年軍事事件頻傳：
• English: Looking back at 2025, the PLA Eastern Theater Commander was purged in October, and the new commander was likely promoted specifically for these drills. It has been an eventful year militarily:
o 4 月 (April)： 川普總統宣布關稅後，解放軍發動了「直雷 2025A」演習。(Following President Trump’s tariff announcements, the PLA launched “Operation Straight Thunder 2025A.”)
o 日本因素 (The Japan Factor)： 日本新任女首相宣布台海衝突對日本構成「存立危機」，顯示日本介入台海的決心。(Japan’s new Prime Minister announced that a Taiwan Strait conflict would constitute an “existential crisis” for Japan, showing their resolve to get involved.)
o 全球衝突 (Global Conflicts)： 2025 年是動盪的一年，包括印巴衝突、泰柬邊境衝突、以色列與伊朗的短期戰爭，以及美國對委內瑞拉的封鎖。(2025 was a turbulent year, including the India-Pakistan conflict, Thai-Cambodian border disputes, a brief war between Israel and Iran, and the U.S. blockade of Venezuela.)
【中國武器的實戰驗證】
[Combat Validation of Chinese Weaponry]
• 中文： 2025 年我們獲得了許多關於中國武器質量的數據。在印巴衝突中，中國製造的戰機和空對空飛彈雖然宣稱擊落了印度戰機，但中國製造的防空系統卻無法阻止印度戰機深入巴基斯坦執行打擊。同樣，伊朗使用的俄製與中製防空系統也無法防禦以色列的 F-35。
• English: In 2025, we gained a lot of data on the quality of Chinese weapons. In the India-Pakistan conflict, while Chinese-made jets and missiles reportedly shot down Indian planes, Chinese-made air defense systems failed to stop Indian jets from striking targets deep inside Pakistan. Similarly, Iran’s Russian and Chinese air defense systems were unable to stop Israeli F-35s at all.
• 中文： 今年最讓解放軍難堪的時刻，莫過於兩艘解放軍船艦在騷擾菲律賓船隻時發生相撞。而美國海軍今年也有失誤，例如兩架 F-18 在避讓飛彈或因燃料問題在航母上發生事故，損失慘重。
• English: The most embarrassing moment for the PLA this year was the collision of two PLA ships while harassing Philippine vessels. The U.S. Navy also had its share of mishaps, such as two F-18s falling off carriers during maneuvers or due to bad fuel, resulting in expensive losses.
【AI 科技與未來展望】
[AI Technology & Future Outlook]
• 中文： 2025 年也是 AI 技術爆發的一年。由於台灣是 AI 基礎設施的核心（半導體），隨著 AI 深度整合到政府、商業與國防系統中，台灣對全世界的價值只會越來越高。
• English: 2025 was a massive year for AI. Since Taiwan is at the core of AI infrastructure (semiconductors), as AI becomes more integrated into government, business, and defense, Taiwan’s value to the world will only continue to rise.
【個人近況與結語】
[Personal Update & Conclusion]
• 中文： 這一年我過得不錯，但最近兩週健康出了點小狀況，需要休息一到兩週來建立更健康的作息，所以明年年初會暫停更新影片。感謝大家在 2025 年的支持，也想聽聽大家對 2026 年的展望或投資建議。祝大家新年快樂！
• English: I’ve had a good year, but I’ve encountered some minor health issues recently. I need to take a one-to-two-week break to establish a healthier routine, so I’ll be pausing video updates at the start of next year. Thank you all for your support in 2025. I’d love to hear your outlooks or investment tips for 2026. Happy New Year!