川普和習近平的六年來首次會面意義重大。在會面之前，中美貿易戰已經持續一段時間（自2025年4月2日以來），雙方已協商出針對中國輸美商品的57%關稅。更值得注意的是，中國突然宣佈了對稀土礦物的全球性限制，這立即引發了川普宣佈對中國加徵100%關稅的反制措施。稀土的提煉過程勞動密集且污染嚴重，使得中國在精煉環節上擁有事實上的壟斷。這些限制宣佈的時機可疑，恰逢中共舉行「四中全會」（第四次全體會議）之前，這是一個高層領導討論政府重大計畫的機會。
The first meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in six years was very significant. Leading up to the meeting, the US-China trade war had been ongoing (since April 2nd, 2025), with negotiations settling on a 57% tariff rate for all Chinese goods entering the US. More notably, China’s surprise announcement of worldwide restrictions on rare earth minerals immediately prompted Trump to announce an additional 100% tariff rate on China. The refining process for rare earth is labor-intensive and polluting, giving China a near-monopoly on the refining of these elements. The timing of these restrictions was suspect, coming just before the CCP’s crucial Fourth Plenum, where top leaders discuss the government’s big plans.
中共內部和解放軍（PLA）的權力鬥爭傳聞是真實的。一個重要的跡象是在四中全會前，有九名高級軍官突然被清洗。一些人認為這顯示了習近平權力的鞏固，但這恰恰說明他正在失去權力，因為這些被清洗的人中有多位是他親自提拔的忠誠者。在川習會面時，一些肢體語言也傳達了訊息：川普顯得輕鬆且有意達成協議；而習近平則看起來心不在焉，而且他似乎「突然長高了四英寸」（可能是穿了增高鞋）。這些肢體語言進一步表明習近平可能正在失去對權力的控制。
The rumors of a power struggle within the CCP and the PLA are true. A big indicator was the sudden purge of nine senior officers right before the Fourth Plenum. While some see this as a sign of Xi’s power retention, it is argued that he is actually losing power, as several of those purged were loyalists personally elevated by Xi. The body language during the Trump-Xi meeting also told a story: Trump looked happy and joking, like he wanted to strike a deal. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, barely spoke, looked like he wanted to be elsewhere, and seemed to have “suddenly grown 4 inches” (perhaps wearing platform shoes). This body language further suggests Xi might be losing his grip on power.
這場一小時四十分鐘的會面涵蓋了許多議題，總結來說，雙方同意：暫緩中國的稀土限制一年；中國承諾打擊芬太尼（fentanyl）生產；作為回應，川普立即將對中國的關稅稅率下調10%，降至47%；中國同意重新購買美國大豆以及非常重要的美國石油和天然氣。中國購買美國石油和天然氣尤其重要，因為這將削弱俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭中的地位。他們也大量討論了烏克蘭戰爭，這場戰爭削弱了中俄兩國在世界上的地位，並促使美國和北約進行軍事改革和技術發展，美國在武器系統上正處於一場技術革命的開端。
The meeting, though only an hour and 40 minutes, covered many topics. To quickly summarize, both sides agreed to: hold off on China’s rare earth restrictions for a year; China promised to crack down on fentanyl production; in response, Trump immediately dropped China’s tariff rate by 10%, to 47%; and China agreed to start buying US soybeans and, very interestingly, US oil and gas again. The purchase of US oil and gas is highly significant because it would weaken Russia’s position regarding the war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine was a major topic, which has weakened both Russia’s and China’s global standing and forced the US and NATO to implement serious military reforms and technology development, placing the US at the beginning of a technological revolution in its weapon systems.
美國是以實力地位進入這次談判的。川習會前不久，川普在社群媒體上宣佈美國將再次開始核武器測試，並展示了美國的軍事優勢，例如針對伊朗的「午夜之錘行動」（Operation Midnight Hammer）和在委內瑞拉海岸針對販毒集團的行動，這些行動顯示了美國在隱形轟炸機和針對小型快速移動目標方面的卓越能力。最為關鍵和重大的一點是：臺灣完全沒有被提及！ 這非常重要，因為通常中國在這些討論中會將臺灣作為首要議題提出，但這次並沒有發生。事實上，川普在會面前就直言：「臺灣就是臺灣（Taiwan is Taiwan.）。」
The US entered these negotiations from a position of strength. Just before the meeting, Trump announced the US would start testing nuclear weapons again and had shown US military dominance, such as with Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran and operations against fast-moving cartel targets off the coast of Venezuela, demonstrating US superiority in stealth bombers and targeting small, fast-moving craft. The single most significant thing is that Taiwan wasn’t mentioned at all! This is huge because usually, when China engages in these types of discussions, Taiwan is one of the first things they bring up, but that didn’t happen this time. In fact, before the meeting, Trump flat out said: “Taiwan is Taiwan, Taiwan is Taiwan.”
一旦中美談判完成，臺灣對美出口的20%臨時關稅稅率很可能會下降，可能會降到15%甚至更低，白宮和賴總統都已表示這是臨時稅率。許多人誤解了這個關稅的影響：首先，這是一個臨時稅率，幾乎肯定會下降。其次，關稅是美國公司和消費者支付的額外稅款（類似銷售稅），雖然臺灣製造商會承擔一部分，但主要負擔在美國人身上。第三，臺灣對美出口的大部分高價值產品，如半導體和積體電路，享有0%的關稅豁免，這是臺灣經濟（股市處於歷史高點）未受到關稅嚴重衝擊的主要原因。
I’m pretty sure that once the negotiations with China are finished, Taiwan’s temporary 20% tariff rate will drop, perhaps down to 15% or even less, as both the White House and President Lai have stated this rate is temporary. Many misunderstand the impact of these tariffs: first, it’s a temporary rate that will almost certainly go down. Second, tariffs mean the US company and the US consumers are paying an additional tax (like an additional sales tax), and while Taiwanese manufacturers will absorb some of it, the bulk is paid for by Americans. Third, the vast majority of high-value Taiwanese exports to the US, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, have a 0% tariff rate—they are exempt. This is why Taiwan’s economy (with the stock exchange at an all-time high) hasn’t been hit very hard.
當然，在製造業（如自行車、紡織品、扣件）確實有工人被休假，這對個人來說很困難。但從美國的角度來看，這鼓勵了過去外移的產業回流美國生產。對於臺灣來說，即使有25,000人被休假，也僅佔總體勞動力的0.25%，而且臺灣新興的國防和無人機產業可以吸納這些製造業工作。總體而言，這次會面對臺灣來說是個好消息。臺灣沒有被中國提及，這是一個重要的訊號。雖然對中國是否會信守承諾感到懷疑，但他們這樣做的唯一原因可能是害怕川普會立即祭出100%的關稅。儘管短期內可能會有些動盪，但從長遠來看，臺灣會沒事的。
Yes, workers have been furloughed in industries like manufacturing, bicycles, textiles, and fasteners, which is tough for those individuals. But from a US perspective, this is a good thing as it encourages industries that had moved offshore to return production to the United States. For Taiwan, even if 25,000 people were furloughed, it is still only about 0.25% of the total workforce, and Taiwan’s budding defense and drone industries can absorb these manufacturing jobs. Overall, this meeting is considered good news for Taiwan. Taiwan wasn’t mentioned by China, which is a highly significant signal. While skeptical that China will actually keep its promises, the only reason they would is out of fear that Trump will slap a 100% tariff on them immediately. Despite some short-term volatility, Taiwan is expected to be fine in the long run.