隨著臺海地緣政治風險升溫，北京當局對臺灣的施壓手段正經歷深刻的質變。除了傳統海空域的軍事演習與威嚇外，一場以人類大腦與社會信任為戰場的「認知作戰（Cognitive Warfare）」與「灰色地帶操作（Grey-zone Operations）」正在日常生活中無形展開。
As geopolitical risks across the Taiwan Strait escalate, the pressure tactics exerted by Beijing authorities on Taiwan are undergoing a profound qualitative shift. Beyond traditional military exercises and intimidation in the air and maritime domains, a campaign of “Cognitive Warfare” and “Grey-zone Operations”—targeting the human mind and societal trust—is silently unfolding in daily life.
在由「特別競爭研究計劃」（Special Competitive Studies Project, SCSP）製作的 Podcast 節目 Strait Forward 中，主持人李恰寧（Channing Lee）深度專訪了立法委員、國立臺北大學犯罪學研究所副教授、黑熊學院共同創辦人暨台灣民主實驗室創辦人沈伯洋（Puma Shen）。沈伯洋在訪談中深入剖析中共認知戰的精密機制、國安立法的實務困境，並詳細闡述如何透過「由下而上」的全民防衛建立社會韌性。
In the podcast Strait Forward, produced by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP), host Channing Lee conducted an in-depth interview with Puma Shen—Legislator, Associate Professor at the Graduate Institute of Criminology at National Taipei University, Co-founder of Kuma Academy, and Founder of Doublethink Lab. During the interview, Shen deeply analyzed the sophisticated mechanisms of the CCP’s cognitive warfare, the practical dilemmas in national security legislation, and elaborated on how to build societal resilience through “bottom-up” civilian defense.
一、 認知作戰的本質：從「製造假新聞」到「輿論與情感重塑」
I. The Essence of Cognitive Warfare: From “Manufacturing Fake News” to “Reshaping Public Opinion and Emotions”
大眾常將認知戰等同於「發布假新聞」，但沈伯洋指出，這是對當前資訊戰最嚴重的誤解。現代認知作戰的核心在於「輿論戰（Public Opinion Warfare）」與「心理戰（Psychological Warfare）」，其手段遠比單純的造謠更為複雜且具隱蔽性。
The public often equates cognitive warfare with “disseminating fake news,” but Puma Shen points out that this is the most severe misconception regarding modern information warfare. The core of modern cognitive warfare lies in “Public Opinion Warfare” and “Psychological Warfare,” utilizing tactics far more complex and covert than simple fabrication.
1. 80/20 法則：基於真實議題的精準放大
1. The 80/20 Rule: Precision Amplification Based on Real Issues
沈伯洋揭露，在中共實施的認知作戰中，高達 80% 的素材源自真實發生的新聞與社會議題，僅有約 20% 是完全虛構的訊息。
Shen revealed that in the cognitive warfare conducted by the CCP, up to 80% of the material originates from real news and societal issues, while only about 20% consists of entirely fabricated information.
• 社會裂痕再利用 (Exploitation of Societal Cleavages): 攻擊者會精準挑選臺灣內部的敏感議題（如空氣污染、缺水缺電、政黨爭議或物價上漲），利用大量協同性帳號（Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior）、網路水軍與演算法機制進行爆發式放大。
Attackers precisely target sensitive domestic issues in Taiwan (such as air pollution, water and power shortages, political party disputes, or rising prices), using massive networks of Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior (CIB), internet trolls, and algorithmic mechanisms for explosive amplification.
• 削弱對民主體制的信任 (Eroding Trust in Democratic Systems): 其最終目的並非爭論單一事件的真偽，而是透過不斷累積的負面情緒與對立，讓民眾對政府的施政能力、民主制度的有效性，乃至國軍的防禦決心產生根本性的動搖。
The ultimate goal is not to debate the truthfulness of a single event, but rather to use accumulated negative emotions and polarization to fundamentally shake public confidence in the government’s governance capacity, the effectiveness of democratic institutions, and the defense resolve of the armed forces.
2. 「中立化」與去政治化策略（Neutralization）
2. “Neutralization” and Depoliticization Strategies
面對年輕世代與無政治傾向的中間選民，認知戰的策略並非強迫其轉向支持威權體制，而是實施「中立化」。
When confronting younger generations and politically unaffiliated swing voters, the strategy of cognitive warfare is not to force them to support authoritarian regimes, but rather to execute “neutralization.”
• 散播虛無主義 (Disseminating Nihilism): 透過社群平台大量投遞「政治人物都一樣腐敗」、「民主制度只是財團工具」、「盟友（如美國）純粹在利用臺灣」等去脈絡化論述。
Inundating social media platforms with decontextualized narratives such as “all politicians are equally corrupt,” “democratic systems are merely tools for conglomerates,” and “allies (like the US) are simply exploiting Taiwan.”
• 瓦解抵抗意志 (Dismantling the Will to Resist): 這種論述能有效誘發民眾產生政治麻木與犬儒主義（Cynicism）。當大眾認為「換誰執政都一樣」或「抵抗也沒有用」時，威權勢力便達成了實質上瓦解臺灣自我防衛意志的目的。
These narratives effectively induce political apathy and cynicism among the public. When citizens believe that “nothing changes no matter who governs” or “resistance is futile,” authoritarian forces achieve their objective of substantially dismantling Taiwan’s will to defend itself.
二、 全民防衛（Civilian Defense）：從日常安全建立社會韌性
II. Civilian Defense: Building Societal Resilience Through Daily Safety
面對無孔不入的灰色地帶威脅，單靠軍隊防守已不足以應對。沈伯洋強調，民間韌性（Civilian Resilience）是國家安全的最底層基石。然而，如何向一般民眾推廣民防，需要極高明的情境轉換技巧。
Faced with pervasive grey-zone threats, military defense alone is no longer sufficient. Shen emphasized that civilian resilience forms the foundational bedrock of national security. However, promoting civil defense to the general public requires highly sophisticated framing tactics.
1. 避開戰爭焦慮：從「災害應變」與「家庭安全」切入
1. Sidestepping War Anxiety: Pivoting to “Disaster Response” and “Family Safety”
直接向社會大眾宣傳「戰爭將至」或「戰場生存」，容易引發公眾的心理排斥或恐慌逃避。因此，黑熊學院等民間團體採取了「日常化與防災化」的推廣策略：
Directly promoting “impending war” or “battlefield survival” to the general public tends to trigger psychological resistance or panicky avoidance. Therefore, civil society organizations like Kuma Academy have adopted a strategy focused on “normalization and disaster preparedness”:
• 關鍵實物技能 (Key Practical Skills): 將民防訓練包裝為日常急救（如創傷止血帶 TQ 的正確使用）、基礎心輔、緊急避難導航與家庭物資儲備。
Packaging civil defense training as everyday first aid (such as the proper application of tourniquets/TQ), basic psychological support, emergency shelter navigation, and household emergency supplies.
• 資訊安全防護 (Information Security Protection): 教導民眾在危機發生或通訊中斷時，如何進行基礎的資安防護與通訊備援，避免因資訊真空而落入敵方的恐慌心理戰。
Educating the public on basic cybersecurity hygiene and backup communication channels during crises or connectivity blackouts, preventing them from falling prey to panic-inducing psychological warfare in an information vacuum.
2. 跨越同溫層：多元化的社會溝通
2. Reaching Beyond Echo Chambers: Diverse Social Communication
為了讓民防觀念滲透至傳統國安議題無法觸及的人群，民防推廣結合了多樣化的溝通形式：
To penetrate audiences unreached by traditional national security discourse, civil defense advocacy incorporates diverse communication channels:
• 互動與遊戲化 (Interactive and Gamified Approaches): 辦理親子防災市集、線上桌遊與情境模擬工作坊，讓家長與孩童在輕鬆的情境中學習避難觀念。
Organizing parent-child disaster preparedness fairs, online board games, and scenario simulation workshops, allowing parents and children to learn evacuation concepts in an engaging setting.
• 意識形態去敏感化 (Ideological Desensitization): 強調民防是「守護家人與社區」的公共服務，而非特定政治立場的展現，成功顯著提升了中間選民與一般家庭的參與意願。
Framing civil defense as a public service dedicated to “protecting families and communities” rather than displaying a specific political stance—successfully boosting participation among politically neutral voters and ordinary households.
三、 制度防衛與立法實務的雙重挑戰
III. Dual Challenges in Institutional Defense and Legislative Practice
作為現任立法委員，沈伯洋亦詳細探討了在民主制度內部推動國家安全立法的現實困境。
As a current legislator, Puma Shen also discussed in detail the practical dilemmas of advancing national security legislation within a democratic framework.
1. 政治極化下的「框架轉換」策略
1. Reframing Strategies Amid Political Polarization
在政治高度對立的國會環境中，涉及「國安」、「外國影響力」或「社群平台監管」的法案，極易被反對陣營貼上政治標籤或打壓言論自由的標籤。
In a highly polarized parliamentary environment, legislation touching on “national security,” “foreign influence,” or “social media platform regulation” is easily labeled by opposition parties as political bias or suppression of free speech.
• 借力打力（結合跨黨派共識）(Leveraging Bipartisan Consensus): 沈伯洋指出，在推動如 Xiaohongshu（小紅書）或 TikTok（抖音）等特定平台的透明度監管或安全審查時，必須將議題轉化為全社會普遍關切的「打擊詐騙（Anti-fraud）」、「保護兒童與青少年網路安全」以及「消費者個人資料保護」。透過民意基礎強烈的議題，才能突破政治僵局。
Shen noted that when pushing for transparency oversight or security audits of platforms like Xiaohongshu or TikTok, the narrative must be reframed into issues of broad societal concern, such as “anti-fraud operations,” “protecting child and youth online safety,” and “consumer data protection.” Leveraging topics with strong public support is essential to breaking legislative gridlocks.
2. 反制跨國壓迫（Transnational Repression）與法律戰
2. Countering Transnational Repression and Lawfare
北京當局近年頻繁運用「法律戰（Lawfare）」與心理戰，例如公布所謂的「台獨頑固份子名單」、發布衛星偵照照片，甚至針對特定人士進行跨國威嚇與通緝。
In recent years, Beijing authorities have frequently employed “lawfare” and psychological warfare—such as releasing lists of so-called “diehard Taiwan independence separatists,” publishing satellite reconnaissance photos, and issuing transnational threats or warrants targeting specific individuals.
• 健全法制防禦 (Strengthening Legal Safeguards): 臺灣必須加速完善國家安全與經濟安全相關法規（如國會議員赴中申報機制、關鍵技術保護等）。
Taiwan must accelerate the refinement of legal frameworks governing national and economic security (e.g., mandatory disclosure mechanisms for legislators visiting China, protection of critical technologies).
• 展現堅定姿態 (Demonstrating Firmness): 沈伯洋認為，面對敵對勢力的名單制裁與心理威嚇，首要原則是「絕不展現軟弱或屈服」。當個人與政府展現出韌性與自信時，對手的心理戰威力和威嚇效果就會大幅遞減。
Shen believes that when facing sanction lists and psychological coercion from hostile forces, the primary rule is “never demonstrate weakness or submission.” When individuals and the government display resilience and confidence, the psychological power and intimidating impact of adversaries diminish significantly.
四、 民主盟友的全球協同防禦機制
IV. Global Coordinated Defense Mechanisms Among Democratic Allies
認知作戰與混合戰（Hybrid Warfare）絕非臺灣獨自面對的特有威脅，而是全球威權主義擴張的共通模式。
Cognitive warfare and hybrid warfare are by no means threats unique to Taiwan alone; they represent common operational patterns of global authoritarian expansion.
1. 臺灣作為威權戰術的測試場
1. Taiwan as a Proving Ground for Authoritarian Tactics
臺灣位於威權擴張的最前線，常年承受最高密度的資訊操作與灰色地帶測試。北京在臺灣實驗成功的認知作戰模型，隨後常被複製並運用於其他民主國家的選舉與社會議題中。
Situated on the front lines of authoritarian expansion, Taiwan constantly absorbs the highest density of information operations and grey-zone testing. Cognitive warfare models successfully tested by Beijing in Taiwan are frequently replicated and deployed in elections and social issues across other democratic nations.
2. 建立跨國「混合戰情報分享中心」
2. Establishing a Transnational “Hybrid Warfare Intelligence Sharing Center”
沈伯洋呼籲全球民主國家不應孤立作戰，而應建立常態化情報共享與防禦網絡：
Shen urges democratic nations worldwide not to fight in isolation, but to build a institutionalized intelligence-sharing and defense network:
• 情報互通 (Intelligence Interoperability): 建立民主國家間的混合戰威脅情報平台，即時分享網路水軍、生成式 AI 操弄與跨國影響力行動的數據。
Establishing a threat intelligence platform among democracies for hybrid warfare to share real-time data on cyber troll networks, generative AI manipulations, and transnational influence operations.
• 經驗輸出 (Exporting Expertise): 臺灣可向國際社會輸出民間防衛、資訊事實查核（Fact-checking）與全民韌性構建的成功範例，共同構築抵禦威權銳實力（Sharp Power）的全球防線。
Taiwan can export successful models of civilian defense, fact-checking initiatives, and community resilience building to the international community, jointly constructing a global shield against authoritarian sharp power.
五、 結論與展望
V. Conclusion and Outlook
面對無形戰場的嚴峻挑戰，臺灣的應對之道不在於封閉社會或犧牲自由，而是在於透過透明的資訊機制、靈活的立法策略以及扎實的全民民防，將自由民主的優勢轉化為最強韌的國安屏障。正如沈伯洋所言，當每一位公民都具備辨識資訊操弄的能力，並掌握守護家園的基礎技能時，威權勢力的認知作戰便無法達成其分化與征服的終極目標。
Facing the severe challenges of an invisible battlefield, Taiwan’s response lies not in closing off society or sacrificing freedom, but in converting the strengths of a free democracy into the most resilient national security shield through transparent information mechanisms, flexible legislative strategies, and solid civil defense. As Puma Shen stated, when every citizen possesses the ability to discern information manipulation and master fundamental skills to protect their home, authoritarian cognitive warfare will fail to achieve its ultimate objectives of division and conquest.
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